Bills Vs 49ers Prediction
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In Week 6, the Green Bay Packers suffered their first and biggest loss of the 2020 NFL season at the hands of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
In the NFC Championship Game this Sunday, they’ll get their long-awaited rematch and shot at redemption with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.
The 38-10 final score from Raymond James Stadium over three months ago probably isn’t representative of what we’re going to see Sunday at Lambeau Field, but one thing’s for certain: the Packers will need to be much better in key areas to defeat the Buccaneers in their second attempt this season.
In the first meeting between these two teams, the Packers’ offense was putrid, to say the least. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers finished the game completing 16-of-35 passes for 160 yards, 4.6 yards per attempt, zero touchdowns, two interceptions and a 35.4 passer rating – by far his worst statistical output of the season.
Rodgers was also taken down four times by the Buccaneers’ defense – his second-highest total of the season – and he was throwing under pressure pretty consistently, especially after left tackle David Bakhtiari exited the game with a chest injury early in the third quarter. Running back Jamaal Williams was Green Bay’s leading rusher in the contest with four carries for 34 yards, while running back Aaron Jones was limited to 15 yards on 10 carries.
The Packers offense had its hands full thanks to the creative and aggressive play-calling of Buccaneers defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. According to ESPN Stats and Info, Rodgers was blitzed on 40.5 percent of his dropbacks in Week 6.
Although he didn’t appear to get rattled, the Packers quarterback uncharacteristically threw two interceptions – one of which was returned for a touchdown and the other of which set up a rushing touchdown by Ronald Jones after it was returned to the Green Bay 2-yard line.
After building a 10-0 lead in the first quarter, the Packers completely imploded. Interceptions on back-to-back possessions early in the second quarter engendered a 14-point swing for the Buccaneers. The Packers followed up two scoring drives and two turnovers with seven consecutive punts. With all the momentum on their side, the Buccaneers went berserk, scoring 38 unanswered points.
Much of the credit for the lopsided nature of the Buccaneers’ Week 6 win belongs to Bowles, who used a variety of fronts and an assortment of simulated pressures, twists/stunts, zero-blitzes and delayed blitzes to keep the Packers’ offense from finding its rhythm.
Here are a few examples of well-schemed and executed plays by the Buccaneers’ defense that led to three-and-outs or missed opportunities by the Packers’ offense:
The Packers offense didn’t find much success running the ball either, as the Buccaneers defensive line did a great job of plugging holes and allowing speedy linebackers Devin White and Lavonte David to shut down perimeter runs. The 28-10 halftime deficit also led to less called run plays for the remainder of the game.
The Packers’ lack of success running the ball wasn’t too surprising or alarming as the Buccaneers have been stingy all year, limiting opposing offenses to an NFL-best 80.6 rushing yards per game during the regular season. The lack of success in the passing game was the real surprise.
Fortunately, that and the lopsided nature of the loss appear to have been anomalies.
Rodgers has been excellent against the blitz pretty much all year, sporting a 123.5 passer rating against it in the 16 other games he’s played. The Buccaneers’ defense, conversely, has surrendered 13 touchdown passes and intercepted just one when blitzing since Week 9.
Judging by the Next Gen Stats, it would seem the Packers are actually a much better match for the Buccaneers than their regular-season meeting would indicate.
Interestingly, the Packers faced a similar situation in the playoffs last year with the 49ers. After losing 37-8 in the regular season at Levi’s Stadium, they wound up facing the 49ers again on the road in the NFC Championship Game. Unfortunately, they were beaten soundly the second time, too, by a final score of 37-20.
Bills Vs 49ers Prediction
Unlike last year’s rematch with the 49ers where the Packers appeared to be overmatched going in, this year’s rematch feels balanced.
The Packers lost badly in Week 6, in large part, because they conceded all momentum with two early turnovers and couldn’t make the Buccaneers pay for their aggressiveness. In most other games this year, however, they did a much better job at both of those things.
If the Packers can win the turnover battle and protect Rodgers better, they should have a good chance to win on Sunday.
Against the 49ers last year, the Packers were clearly outcoached and overmatched. In the Week 6 loss to Tampa Bay this year, execution – not talent or coaching – was the primary culprit.
With home-field advantage, an improved defense and presumably better offensive execution, the Packers have a real shot at earning their sixth Super Bowl appearance.
Super Bowl LV is set to kick off at 3:30pm Pacific Time at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa.
While the 49ers are not playing in this year’s game, I decided to go through and jot down some thoughts, look at some prop bets, and make a prediction for Sunday’s showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Quarterbacks don't play against each other
Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
I’m sensitive to the need to drum up interest in games through narratives. That’s especially true when it comes to the Super Bowl where a two-week layoff between the conference championship games and the Super Bowl leaves a ton of space to fill. The narrative that is most frustrating though is the “quarterback vs. quarterback” one. Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes are not playing against each other. They’re playing against the opposing defense. A Chiefs loss would do nothing extra to Mahomes’ “legacy.” If he wins 10 Super Bowls with this one loss, nobody is going to say “well he can’t be the GOAT because he lost to Tom Brady.” And if there are people who say that, launch them directly into space where their opinions will be confined to the abyss.
Some wagers
William Glasheen via Imagn Content Services, LLC
Bills Vs 49 Ers Prediction
No single game in the United States garners more wagering than the Super Bowl. I had some fun digging through BetMGM, the King of Sportsbooks, looking at some Super Bowl props. Here are some I like:
Leonard Fournette over 78.5 rushing + receiving yards (-105)
Fournette over 3.5 receptions (+115)
Total score under 56.5 points (-110)
Kansas City Chiefs under 28.5 points (+105)
Cameron Brate over 2.5 receptions (+110)
Travis Kelce over 7.5 receptions (-135)
Chiefs first reception by Mecole Hardman (+800)
Most tackles and assists by Lavonte David (+400)
Speaking of Lavonte David
Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Lavonte David is a really good player. He’s made only one Pro Bowl and one First-Team All-Pro nod in his nine seasons, but he regularly stuffs the stat sheet and is always on the field. He’s missed only seven games in 12 seasons and never more than three in a year. He’s started all 137 games he has played, and racked up 806 solo tackles, 128 tackles for loss, 24.0 sacks, 12 interceptions, 51 pass breakups and 24 forced fumbles. Shoutout to David for quietly being an awesome linebacker for more than a decade.
The pass-catching talent is insane
Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
There are SO many good wide receivers and tight ends playing in this year’s Super Bowl. Here they are via my personal power rankings:
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1. Tyreek Hill
2. Travis Kelce
3. Chris Godwin
4. Mike Evans
5. Antonio Brown
6. Mecole Hardman
7. Cameron Brate
8. Sammy Watkins
9. Rob Gronkowski
Super Bowl halftime show
Perry Knotts/Handout Photo via USA TODAY Sports
I consider myself a fan of The Weeknd. That said, his choice as a Super Bowl halftime performer is perplexing. His hits are high-energy enough to make due, but his best stuff is not the dance-style music that makes a Super Bowl halftime show great. I’m looking forward to watching him perform, but it’s hard to imagine it’s going to be a strong representation of what makes him a good artist.
Prediction
Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
The Chiefs being without two starting left tackles against a defense that boasts four of the NFL’s top 25 in sacks is a recipe that might be enough to slow down the Patrick Mahomes-led machine that is Kansas City’s offense. Combining that with the Buccaneers getting to be at home with Tom Brady starting his 10th Super Bowl and there are a lot of things pointing in Tampa Bay’s favor. Betting against Mahomes is probably the wrong move, but here we are.
Pick: Buccaneers 30, Chiefs 25